Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 2.321551 2.460120 2.610985 2.789114 2.996003 3.231793 3.525592
2025-07-27 2.177590 2.350875 2.547828 2.792472 3.094768 3.466059 3.974887
2025-08-03 2.080489 2.274639 2.501999 2.795015 3.174683 3.670502 4.410504
2025-08-10 1.965717 2.164792 2.402003 2.714530 3.131599 3.698509 4.596719
2025-08-17 1.895656 2.102303 2.352743 2.690037 3.153993 3.812181 4.928240
2025-08-24 1.838307 2.050859 2.312221 2.671063 3.178280 3.927198 5.286075
2025-08-31 1.791313 2.009055 2.280317 2.659372 3.209035 4.052885 5.695826
2025-09-07 1.761642 1.986981 2.271676 2.677251 3.282504 4.255020 6.324351
2025-09-14 1.692265 1.911112 2.188466 2.585297 3.181392 4.149470 6.255012
2025-09-21 1.662153 1.884541 2.169187 2.582148 3.215834 4.282115 6.785135
2025-09-28 1.617916 1.837954 2.120974 2.534433 3.175768 4.274992 6.965826
2025-10-05 1.613647 1.843162 2.142487 2.588545 3.302644 4.596816 8.234167
2025-10-12 1.613333 1.854769 2.174890 2.663649 3.477901 5.068158 10.633018
2025-10-19 1.590028 1.834515 2.161673 2.668085 3.531578 5.297637 12.569494
2025-10-26 1.568102 1.815192 2.148671 2.671579 3.583328 5.536408 15.302023
2025-11-02 1.524327 1.764880 2.089708 2.599462 3.489532 5.401887 15.098106
2025-11-09 1.498204 1.737977 2.063376 2.577955 3.488636 5.502859 17.323770
2025-11-16 1.474981 1.714369 2.040898 2.561316 3.495256 5.625622 20.646758
2025-11-23 1.454907 1.694514 2.023105 2.551202 3.513326 5.784827 26.478806
2025-11-30 1.443675 1.686458 2.022025 2.568010 3.585472 6.120272 49.379012
2025-12-07 1.404530 1.638801 1.961600 2.484256 3.449498 5.802427 35.369319
2025-12-14 1.389690 1.624710 1.950242 2.481690 3.478310 5.999822 64.223508
2025-12-21 1.364039 1.595026 1.915134 2.438145 3.420410 5.914821 68.962417